Analysis: Last
5 Venue-Appropriate Games
The
charts below illustrate
the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. The red bar represents
each team’s
current Sagarin
Predictor rating, which represents
overall team strength. The
“Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin
rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory
(loss) for
each game. Homecourt
advantage is also factored into the equation.
The black line represents the linear trend over the last
five games for the team.
In
this analysis, Kansas has played
even better than its nation-leading season average rating. The Jayhawks come in with
a 3.2-point
edge over their regular rating. It
is also a fairly consistent trend, with a slightly upward trajectory. The only game that could
be considered
a dud would be the near upset at Colorado.
Otherwise, KU has looked strong for the most part with
impressive victories or tough ones against very good competition. KU’s average performance
over the last
five road games would be good enough to beat any of aTm’s
last five home performances by 7.5 points or more, most of them well
above the
double digit threshold. KU
has
performed at or above aTm’s
best performance in four
of its last five road games. Even
if the Aggies perform at their season average, KU has done better in
all of its
last five road games.
Texas
A&M’s
last five home games have not deviated much from their season rating,
coming in
about a half point below that. Not
one of aTm’s last five
home games have
been played at a level that would challenge KU’s season average or KU’s
last
five trend. However,
the last two
games (Texas Tech, Baylor) the Aggies played at a level that is better
than
KU’s worst of the last five road games (@ Colorado), giving Texas
A&M a
glimmer of hope. Moreover,
the
trend looks clearly upward.
In
summary, over the last
five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 14.1 points
better
than Texas A&M. Based
on
season average ratings, the Jayhawks should be favored by 6.4 points,
but this
specific analysis gives KU a more dominant 10.1-point cushion.
Four Factors
Analysis
Based
on the cumulative
season boxscore for
each team, we can look at the
Four Factors to see where each team has derived the bulk of its
(dis)advantage
in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. For
each team,
Team 1 is the team itself and Team 2 is its opponents. Here
is the
breakdown:
|
TEXAS
A&M
|
Team
1
|
Team
2
|
Advantage
|
|
|
eFG%
|
50.27%
|
46.77%
|
91.7
|
|
|
TO
Rate
|
17.97%
|
21.52%
|
59.1
|
|
|
OREB%
|
34.11%
|
31.18%
|
26.2
|
|
|
FTA/FGA
|
34.51%
|
26.24%
|
-23.3
|
FT
Pct
|
|
|
|
|
128.3
|
FT
Attempts
|
|
KANSAS
|
Team
1
|
Team
2
|
Advantage
|
|
|
eFG%
|
54.98%
|
42.08%
|
383.6
|
|
|
TO
Rate
|
17.87%
|
20.29%
|
44.1
|
|
|
OREB%
|
38.23%
|
28.87%
|
83.1
|
|
|
FTA/FGA
|
28.92%
|
21.99%
|
10.1
|
FT
Pct
|
|
|
|
|
97.9
|
FT
Attempts
|
Effective Field
Goal Percentage (eFG%)
While Texas
A&M has a decent edge in this
category on the season, it is nowhere near the dominance that KU has
displayed. aTm’s
edge in this category is a little under 3
points per game versus KU’s whopping 15.
And the difference on either side of the ball between the
two teams is
roughly equivalent. That
is, KU
shoots it better than aTm
does by about the same
margin as it holds its opponents’ eFG% down better than the Aggies.
You just can’t
talk about Texas A&M’s
shooting without mentioning Donald Sloan.
In fact, you could just stop
there. Sloan takes
over 28% of
shots while he’s on the floor, and he’s on the floor a lot (81% of
available
minutes). Fortunately
for the
Aggies, Sloan averages 51.5 eFG% on the season, but that number has
dropped way
down to 46% in conference play. He
has shot over 50 eFG% in only three of the last ten games overall. In Big 12 play, Sloan has
rarely taken
under 25% of his team’s shots, so it’s a good bet that his percentage
will
dictate where things go tonight.
For Kansas, the
trio of Sherron Collins,
Xavier Henry and Marcus Morris must shoot well, since they are the
primary
shooters. Marcus
Morris has
settled back to a more average rate in the last two games though. There was a stretch of
five consecutive
games prior to that where Morris was taking 30% or more of the teams
shots. While a lot
had been made
of Henry’s shooting woes recently, he has shot 50% or better in four of
the
last six games. EDGE: Kansas
Turnover Rate
On the season,
both teams have displayed good
ball control, but Texas A&M has done a slightly better job of
forcing
turnovers. In
conference play
though, the Aggies have gone in the wrong direction on both sides,
albeit not
by much. Things
have nudged even
less for KU in conference, and interestingly, we are left with both
teams
having identical turnover percentages in conference play on both sides
of the
ball (18.8% own vs
19.8% opp). It is very hard to declare
anyone the
favorite in this category. EDGE: Even
Offensive
Rebounding Percentage (OREB%)
On the season,
KU has nearly three times the
advantage that aTm does
on the boards. It
comes mostly courtesy of the better
job KU does on the offensive end.
Credit Cole Aldrich and the Morris twins there. The Aggies counter with
Bryan Davis and
David Loubeau, but
that’s three guys to two for
KU. Not to mention,
Thomas Robinson plays 20% of available KU minutes and grabs 16% of OREB. EDGE:
Kansas
FTA/FGA
Teams want to
have a high FTA/FGA because the
free throw line is generally the most efficient place to be on the
court, so
the more possessions that end with free throws, the more efficient a
team is
likely to be on offense. Many
can
easily point to Texas A&M’s
prolific FTA/FGA and
say they are clearly the favorite here, but it’s just as important to
keep the
opponent off the free throw line.
When
all is said and done, the Aggies’ advantage in this category on the
season
isn’t all that much greater than KU’s.
It is mostly the result of poor FT shooting once they get
to the line.
When you look at
only conference play, KU’s
advantage over opponents in FTA/FGA is about the same (7 or 8%), but
both sides
go way up. KU has a
ratio of 42%
versus opponents’ 35% in Big 12 action.
The Aggies’ numbers go up, too (51-40%), expanding on
their already
potent advantage on the season overall.
It won’t mean all that much though, as this is the weakest
of the Four
Factors.
EDGE: Texas A&M
Sagarin
ratings source: USAToday.com