By the Numbers: Kansas vs. Villanova

The last time KU faced ‘Nova, the Jayhawks were run out of the gym. Kansas looks for payback in a big way in this Sweet Sixteen showdown. Let’s see what the numbers look like.

	Kansas	Villanova
Performance Indicators
Record	33-3	22-12
AP Rank	4	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	45
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	3	47
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 12 Est. Projection: 78-66
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 13.9
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 81-64 93% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 8.1 93.7% chance of victory

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

For information on these ratings, click here.

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Mario Chalmers	7.27	187.43
Darnell Jackson	6.54	140.94
Brennan Bechard*	5.66	2.08
Tyrel Reed*	5.65	14.32
Darrell Arthur	5.33	114.42
Cole Aldrich	5.21	37.34
Brandon Rush	4.97	130.14
Russell Robinson	4.84	117.93
Sasha Kaun	4.41	66.93
Jeremy Case*	4.02	10.85
Rodrick Stewart	3.97	29.41
Sherron Collins	3.92	74.41
Matt Kleinmann*	3.43	3.12
Conner Teahan*	2.99	3.81
Chase Buford*	-3.35	-1.27
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.86	-3.05

 * Rating not based on enough data.

Villanova

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Dwayne Anderson	5.34	78.41
Casiem Drummond (OUT)	4.39	29.83
Dante Cunningham	3.81	94.51
Shane Clark	2.93	49.22
Scottie Reynolds	2.57	69.10
Antonio Pena	1.66	26.99
Reggie Redding	0.88	15.13
Malcolm Grant	0.79	7.09
Corey Stokes	0.71	10.79
Andrew Ott*	0.45	0.18
Corey Fisher	-0.20	-3.55
Frank Tchuisi*	-2.61	-0.83
Jason Colenda*	-2.79	-0.48

 * Rating not based on enough data.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Offense #1 - Defense #4 - Tempo #110
Usually win the all-important eFG% category (#5 own, #13 defense)
Rank #45 in avoiding own TO
Strong offensive rebounding (#20) and limit opp OREB% (#25)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4)
Great shooting from both 2FG (#6) and 3FG (#8)
Dominate the BLK category (#8 limit own, #4 block opp)
Rank #16 in STL% from opp
Very few 3FGA as % of FGA (#285), but opp take a lot (#291 limit opp 3FGA)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#44)
One of the taller teams, ranking #45 in Effective Height

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16)

Mario Chalmers - #22 eFG%, #172 AST rate, #17 STL%
Russell Robinson - #113 FT Rate, #48 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #105 OREB%, #112 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #23 eFG%, #136 DREB%, #166 FT Rate
Sasha Kaun - #178 OREB%, #49 BLK%

Villanova

Offense #60 - Defense #36 - Tempo #83
Opponents use FT line way to easily (#323 limit opp FT Rate)
Get blocked too often on offense (#322)
Opponents take very high percentage of FGA from 3FG (#320 limit opp)
One of youngest teams in country (#324 in Experience)
Deep bench (#39)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16)

Dante Cunningham - #190 OREB%
Corey Fisher - #162 AST Rate
Dwayne Anderson - #75 STL%

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, Nova relies more on FT's and less on 2FG's, while its opponents rarely use 2FG’s.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

Clear Advantage for Kansas

Villanova % own 2FGA's blocked**

Kansas 3pt FG%**

Kansas eFG%**

Villanova 2pt FG%**

Kansas FT Rate

Villanova eFG%**

Kansas 2pt FG%**

Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**

Villanova % Poss STL by Opp**

Clear Advantage for Villanova

None

************************************************* 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Villanova will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect uptempo game

Bottom Line

You wouldn’t expect a #12 seed to have the same statistical profile as a #1 seed, and of course we don’t see it here either. All the numbers point in favor of a somewhat comfortable Jayhawk victory. In particular, it should boil down to Kansas getting better shots and thus having a higher eFG%. The trends also favor a somewhat unusual occurrence, a slight advantage at the free throw line for KU. If Villanova is going to have a chance, they will have to force KU into turnovers and also hit their inevitably high number of three-point field goal attempts. Both Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher are high-possession-usage players for Villanova, so both must avoid turnovers and shoot a high eFG% for a chance at the upset.