By the Numbers: Kansas St. at Kansas

The Jayhawks get a chance to settle the score against the first team to beat them this season. This time, there’s no “Streak” on anyone’s shoulders … just 15,000+ fans out to give K-State a huge headache. Let’s see how the teams match up statistically.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU home games and KSU non-home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

With the exception of probably its best performance of the season (vs Nebraska), Kansas has performed close to its season average on at home recently, doing so in four of its last five home games. The game against Baylor was the worst game in that stretch, but it was still several points better than KSU’s season average. K-State has clearly underperformed its season average in its last five road games. The Wildcats were solid at Colorado, but other than that, they have really been an average team on the road. Only one game in both teams’ last five venue-appropriate games had KSU performing at a level that would have won at KU. Of course, it’s a rivalry game that defies standard statistical analysis. But the tendencies of both teams are still present, and the game is being played at the favorite’s homecourt this time around.

In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 3.2 points better than its season average. KSU has underperformed its season rating by 3.9 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 15.3 points better than K-State. An average homecourt boost of 4 points means that this analysis projects a lopsided Jayhawk victory.

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

For information on these ratings, click here.

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Mario Chalmers	6.88	136.95
Darnell Jackson	6.54	118.65
Conner Teahan*	5.92	7.05
Cole Aldrich	5.59	31.92
Tyrel Reed*	4.93	12.65
Brennan Bechard*	4.88	1.80
Brandon Rush	4.77	94.48
Darrell Arthur	4.73	76.87
Sasha Kaun	4.67	56.26
Russell Robinson	3.95	77.79
Rodrick Stewart	3.58	26.96
Sherron Collins	1.79	24.06
Matt Kleinmann*	1.64	1.22
Jeremy Case*	1.05	2.56
Brad Witherspoon*	-4.17	-1.52
Chase Buford*	-9.05	-3.42

 * Rating not based on enough data.

Kansas State

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Michael Beasley	10.41	227.70
Ron Anderson	4.18	32.25
Fred Brown	4.14	23.39
Bill Walker	3.81	66.32
Dominique Sutton	3.12	13.83
James Franklin*	2.53	2.76
Jacob Pullen	1.31	22.19
Chris Merriewether	0.75	4.19
Clent Stewart	0.44	7.85
Andre Gilbert	0.10	1.01
Darren Kent	-0.02	-0.20
Blake Young	-0.04	-0.77
Luis Colon*	-1.57	-5.74

 * Rating not based on enough data.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Offense #3 - Defense #2 - Tempo #72
Usuall win the all-important eFG% battle (#8 own, #20 defense)
Good at limiting own TO (#41)
Strong rebounding on both sides (#43 OREB, #17 limit opp OREB)
Dominant 2FG% on offense (#6) and defense (#6)
Dominate the BLK category (#7 limit own, #4 block opp)
Rank #23 in STL from opp
Very low 3FGA as % of total FGA (#295), but opp takes a lot (#257 at preventing)
High % of FG's assisted (#46)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24)

Mario Chalmers - #36 eFG%, #145 AST rate, #26 STL%
Russell Robinson - #101 FT Rate, #54 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #126 OREB%, #68 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #14 eFG%, #168 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #147 OREB%, #48 BLK%

Kansas State

Offense #23 - Defense #11 - Tempo #23
Incredible offensive rebounding (#2)
Poor 3FG% (#252)
Limit opp 2FG% (#27)
 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24)

Michael Beasley - #150 eFG%, #29 OREB%, #7 DREB%, #178 BLK%

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely very heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, KSU relies somewhat less than usual on 3FG's, while its opponents are fairly balanced.