By the Numbers: Kansas at Iowa St.

Kansas tries to get back on track at Iowa State. After losing its third road game in four tries, will the Jayhawks break out of their road slump? Let’s take a look at the numbers that shape this matchup.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU non-home games and Iowa State home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

Kansas has not played to its season average in any of its last five road games. The trend looks negative over the last three games, with its worst game in this stretch being Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma State. ISU’s best performance in the last five home games is still worse than KU’s worst performance, although the homecourt edge would be enough to nudge ISU into victory were they both to play to those levels. ISU has, however, also played a horrendous game in this stretch against Texas A&M, one which would have them losing by well over 25 points to an average KU performance. In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 7.3 points worse than its season average. ISU has outperformed its season rating by 3.6 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 8.6 points better than ISU. After a 4-pt homecourt edge is factored in for Iowa State, this analysis projects a small four or five-point victory for the Jayhawks. Sure, if you look at the whole season’s statistics, the Jayhawks are clear favorites and by a fairly comfortable margin, but the way they have been playing of late, any road against a decent team could spell disaster.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas
Offense #3 - Defense #2 - Tempo #75 Excellent shooting (#5 eFG%, #5 on 2FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#18) Rank #39 in avoiding own TO Strong offensive rebounding (#43) and limit opp OREB% (#21) Limit opponents' use of FT line (#48) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#6) Dominate the BLK category (#7 limit own, #4 block opp) Rank #9 in STL on defense Very few 3FG's as % of FGA (#290), but opp very high (#254 at keeping low) Very high % of FG's assisted (#42) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24) Mario Chalmers - #36 eFG%, #145 AST rate, #26 STL% Russell Robinson - #101 FT Rate, #54 STL% Darrell Arthur - #126 OREB%, #68 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #14 eFG%, #168 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #147 OREB%, #48 BLK%
Iowa State
Offense #158 - Defense #52 - Tempo #191 Poor shooting on both sides in most games (#252 own eFG%, #46 at limiting opp eFG%) Don't force many TO (#305) Pitiful OREB% (#300) Keep opp off FT line (#25 FT Rate defense) Terrible 3FG% (#309) but give up low 2FG% (#25) STL category not good for them (#275 limit own, #299 stealing from opp) Opp have low % of FG's assisted (#28)   Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24) Jiri Hubalek - #65 DREB%, #156 TO Rate Diante Garrett - #180 AST Rate
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies more on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, ISU is fairly balanced, while its opponents rely less than usual on FT's.

 

Keys to Watch For	Metric
KU's ability to avoid TO's should correlate to its own offense as well as to ISU's defensive efficiency.  As an added "bonus" it also correlates to ISU's offensive efficiency.	Kansas to limit TO Rate to 19% or lower
ISU's offense and KU's defense correlate to ISU's FT Rate.  There are three major threats at the FT line for ISU.	Hubalek, Garrett and Brackins to combine for at least 15 free throw attempts
KU has had a tendency to go cold from behind the arc in road games recently, while its opponents have shot well there.  ISU is not a good perimter shooting team, which makes it imperative that KU's advantage there materialize properly.	KU to shoot better 3FG% than ISU